COVID-19 / SARS-COVID-2

Effectiveness of Response to COVID-19: Comparisons Between Regions


Daily number of infected people
The "response" metric gives the "lost time" in responding to COVID-19.
(Most recent data may be incomplete.)




World-Wide Worse Response



Reproduction Number R(t)
Equation: R(t) nc(t) = ni(t) using the delays: ni(t) = nc(t + 5 days) = nr(t + 12 days).
R(t) nr(t + 7 days) = nr(t + 12 days), where ni(t), nc(t) and nr(t) are
the infected, contagious and reported daily-number of people, respectively.





Regions' Response: from Best to Worse
Country/Region
Province/State
/City
Response
[days]
R0 Duration of Exp.
Growth [days]
End of Exp.
Growth
Paraguay
2.8 1.9 12 2020-04-26
Venezuela
3.8 2.1 12 2020-05-12
Jamaica
5.0 1.8 12 2020-04-11
Tanzania
5.1 1.9 12 2020-04-09
Guatemala
5.2 1.6 17 2020-05-12
China Henan 5.5 2.4 12 2020-01-22
Australia Western Australia 5.8 2.1 12 2020-03-14
Korea, South
6.3 2.9 12 2020-02-18
Sri Lanka
6.3 1.6 12 2020-04-16
Andorra
7.1 2.4 12 2020-03-14
New Zealand
7.4 2.7 12 2020-03-16
Gabon
7.5 1.6 12 2020-05-02
Thailand
8.0 2.7 12 2020-03-11
Australia Tasmania 8.0 1.6 13 2020-03-17
Mauritius
8.1 2.3 12 2020-03-16
United Kingdom Channel Islands 8.1 2.1 21 2020-03-18
Montenegro
8.2 2.1 12 2020-03-16
Tunisia
8.2 2.2 12 2020-03-16
US-NY Steuben 8.3 1.9 18 2020-03-24
China All 8.6 2.7 12 2020-01-22
Georgia
8.9 1.4 42 2020-03-25
Australia New South Wales 9.0 3.0 12 2020-03-09
Chad
9.1 1.9 13 2020-04-27
China Heilongjiang 9.3 3.0 12 2020-01-22
United Kingdom Isle of Man 9.4 2.4 12 2020-03-19
Niger
9.5 2.7 18 2020-03-25
China Hubei 9.7 3.1 12 2020-01-22
Senegal
10.0 1.7 12 2020-04-18
France Martinique 10.1 1.9 16 2020-03-09
Croatia
10.2 2.6 12 2020-03-12
Australia Victoria 10.4 2.7 12 2020-03-09
Haiti
10.6 2.2 12 2020-05-04
US-NY Madison 10.7 2.1 12 2020-03-21
Israel
10.8 2.5 12 2020-03-14
Singapore
10.9 2.0 12 2020-04-08
US-NY Westchester 11.2 2.7 12 2020-03-14
Australia All 11.4 3.3 12 2020-03-07
Honduras
11.5 1.7 17 2020-04-25
US-NY Saratoga 11.6 1.8 12 2020-03-15
Slovenia
12.3 2.4 12 2020-03-03
Canada British Columbia 12.4 2.5 13 2020-03-09
US-NY Ulster 13.0 2.0 12 2020-03-20
US-NY Rockland 13.1 2.8 12 2020-03-15
Liberia
13.3 1.7 13 2020-04-01
France Guadeloupe 13.3 1.1 12 2020-03-09
Diamond Princess
13.6 1.1 12 2020-01-31
Equatorial Guinea
13.6 1.6 17 2020-04-14
Estonia
13.9 2.0 21 2020-03-05
Luxembourg
14.0 3.6 12 2020-03-07
Somalia
14.1 2.2 12 2020-04-09
Uzbekistan
14.2 1.9 26 2020-03-27
Canada Nova Scotia 14.6 2.2 12 2020-03-14
Canada-ON London 14.6 2.4 12 2020-03-04
China Beijing 14.8 1.1 12 2020-05-20
Burkina Faso
14.8 2.9 12 2020-03-10
Kosovo
15.5 1.1 12 2020-03-19
Bosnia and Herzegovina
15.8 2.0 22 2020-03-14
Latvia
15.8 2.7 12 2020-03-08
San Marino
15.9 2.3 13 2020-02-27
Cyprus
16.0 2.2 12 2020-03-08
Bahrain
16.0 1.4 12 2020-04-05
Djibouti
16.2 2.2 14 2020-04-04
US-NY Rensselaer 16.2 1.7 12 2020-03-15
Canada-ON Ottawa 16.2 2.2 12 2020-03-03
Slovakia
16.4 2.7 12 2020-03-06
Mali
16.5 1.7 23 2020-04-03
Tajikistan
16.5 2.0 12 2020-04-28
Malaysia
16.5 2.7 15 2020-03-05
Greece
16.6 2.6 17 2020-03-01
Iceland
16.7 2.4 12 2020-02-27
US-NY Putnam 16.7 2.4 12 2020-03-14
Costa Rica
17.4 2.5 14 2020-03-08
Cuba
17.4 2.2 19 2020-03-17
Lithuania
17.7 3.2 12 2020-03-10
US-NY Schenectady 18.3 2.3 12 2020-03-12
Austria
18.4 3.2 20 2020-03-03
US-NY Ontario 18.5 1.7 15 2020-03-18
North Macedonia
19.0 2.1 12 2020-03-13
Nicaragua
19.2 1.1 12 2020-03-12
US-NY Tioga 19.3 1.1 12 2020-03-20
Uruguay
19.6 1.1 12 2020-03-08
Romania
20.6 2.4 19 2020-03-14
US-NY Washington 20.7 1.1 12 2020-03-18
US-NY Greene 20.8 1.1 12 2020-03-18
US-NY Niagara 20.9 1.9 16 2020-03-21
Czechia
20.9 2.9 18 2020-03-06
US-NY Sullivan 21.1 2.6 12 2020-03-16
Norway
21.2 3.7 12 2020-02-25
US-NY Albany 21.3 2.4 12 2020-03-11
US-NY Broome 21.3 2.1 12 2020-03-20
US-NY Fulton 21.3 1.1 12 2020-03-26
US-NY Oneida 21.4 2.2 18 2020-03-22
Yemen
21.5 1.1 12 2020-04-23
Sierra Leone
21.5 1.7 12 2020-04-13
Azerbaijan
21.9 2.0 12 2020-03-20
Hungary
21.9 2.3 12 2020-03-12
Jordan
21.9 1.1 12 2020-03-09
US-NY Warren 22.3 1.1 12 2020-03-19
Lebanon
22.4 1.9 23 2020-03-02
Kenya
22.5 2.0 22 2020-03-22
Finland
22.6 2.5 19 2020-03-03
US-NY Orange 22.7 3.7 12 2020-03-11
US-NY Columbia 23.1 1.1 12 2020-03-14
Ecuador
23.5 2.3 12 2020-03-13
Togo
23.5 1.1 12 2020-03-13
Bahamas
23.5 1.1 12 2020-03-09
Ireland
23.8 2.9 21 2020-03-08
United Kingdom Bermuda 23.8 1.1 12 2020-03-12
Cote d'Ivoire
23.9 2.3 12 2020-03-15
Algeria
24.0 2.1 14 2020-03-16
Philippines
24.1 3.0 15 2020-03-13
Canada-ON All 24.6 2.5 13 2020-03-01
Morocco
24.7 2.5 12 2020-03-14
US-NY Onondaga 24.8 2.7 12 2020-03-15
Albania
25.0 1.1 12 2020-03-05
US-NY Dutchess 25.5 3.0 12 2020-03-12
Bulgaria
25.6 2.5 12 2020-03-06
Cameroon
25.6 2.2 18 2020-03-22
Kyrgyzstan
25.7 2.2 12 2020-03-16
Sudan
25.9 2.1 12 2020-04-15
US-NY Nassau 26.1 3.9 15 2020-03-07
US-NY All 26.4 3.9 20 2020-03-08
Canada-ON Toronto 26.9 2.4 13 2020-03-01
Guyana
26.9 1.1 12 2020-03-05
Belarus
27.1 2.8 12 2020-03-29
US-NY Orleans 27.3 1.1 12 2020-03-20
Switzerland
27.5 3.4 12 2020-02-24
Denmark
27.6 3.8 12 2020-02-26
Denmark All 27.7 3.8 12 2020-02-26
Qatar
27.7 2.0 12 2020-03-27
Portugal
27.9 3.5 18 2020-03-07
Congo (Brazzaville)
28.1 1.1 12 2020-03-09
Dominican Republic
28.2 2.7 12 2020-03-15
Canada All 28.2 2.9 13 2020-03-12
Canada Alberta 28.4 3.1 13 2020-03-07
United Arab Emirates
28.4 2.3 14 2020-03-22
US-NY Monroe 28.9 2.8 12 2020-03-12
Kuwait
29.1 1.8 12 2020-03-29
Germany
29.1 3.5 13 2020-02-28
US-NY New York 29.6 3.9 18 2020-03-06
Canada Quebec 29.8 3.2 12 2020-03-13
France All 30.1 3.3 13 2020-02-27
Japan
30.6 1.9 12 2020-02-12
France
31.0 3.4 12 2020-02-26
France Mayotte 31.3 2.4 12 2020-03-14
US-NY Erie 31.3 3.3 12 2020-03-13
Kazakhstan
31.4 2.0 20 2020-03-19
US-NY Suffolk 31.6 4.2 12 2020-03-07
Bangladesh
32.7 2.9 12 2020-04-03
Canada Ontario 32.7 2.3 13 2020-03-11
Italy
32.9 3.5 12 2020-02-19
Serbia
33.7 2.7 14 2020-03-08
Guinea
34.5 2.9 13 2020-03-22
Armenia
34.8 2.3 12 2020-03-10
Panama
35.2 3.1 12 2020-03-09
Argentina
35.4 2.5 21 2020-03-12
Netherlands
36.9 3.4 12 2020-02-26
Netherlands All 36.9 3.4 12 2020-02-26
Belgium
37.6 3.0 12 2020-02-28
El Salvador
37.6 2.0 14 2020-03-20
US
38.0 3.6 18 2020-03-08
Afghanistan
38.8 2.0 12 2020-03-20
Oman
39.4 2.0 12 2020-03-16
South Africa
39.7 3.4 16 2020-03-11
Ghana
39.8 2.7 12 2020-03-12
Turkey
40.2 4.1 12 2020-03-09
Pakistan
40.8 2.4 12 2020-03-10
Bolivia
40.8 1.8 22 2020-03-19
Sweden
41.0 3.8 12 2020-02-26
Nigeria
41.5 2.5 12 2020-03-16
Congo (Kinshasa)
42.1 2.4 12 2020-03-10
Moldova
42.4 2.7 12 2020-03-08
Ukraine
43.1 3.5 13 2020-03-13
Poland
43.1 3.5 12 2020-03-04
Spain
43.4 4.2 12 2020-02-23
Iraq
43.8 2.1 12 2020-02-23
Iran
44.2 4.4 12 2020-02-17
Egypt
46.1 2.2 16 2020-03-04
United Kingdom
46.2 3.0 15 2020-03-02
United Kingdom All 46.2 3.0 15 2020-03-02
Indonesia
47.2 3.1 15 2020-03-04
Colombia
48.6 3.2 13 2020-03-08
Mexico
50.7 2.6 12 2020-03-11
World All 51.0 2.6 12 2020-01-22
Brazil
53.3 2.7 17 2020-03-11
Chile
59.0 3.3 14 2020-03-05
India
59.7 2.9 13 2020-03-09
Russia
61.7 2.8 12 2020-03-11
Peru
64.0 3.3 12 2020-03-06
Saudi Arabia
66.7 2.9 12 2020-03-01


Scale-free Network as a Model of Propagation.
Power law model P(k) = k-2.  Big spreaders contribute to most of the propagation of the disease.

20% of the spreaders (blue line) cause 80% of infections (red line).
(From "Super-spreaders" in The Guardian.)
With R0 = 3.0, the transmission probability is 76% per contact.

Reducing the number of people you meet each week will slow down propagation
(see: "Quarantine the social butterflies? It can be a better way to start off flattening the curve").
Assumed contagion period for COVID-19: about one week.

For each value of R: number of contacts in a week
as a function of the transmission probability per contact.


Incubation Period.
It takes nearly a week to know if you were infected by your last social encounter.
So if you must go out again: no chatting with anybody and a hand sign from a distance.



Number of Flights Worldwide.

Total flights: Commercial passenger flights + cargo flights + charter flights + some business jet flights




Sources:


Louis Marmet
© 2020-5-25