COVID-19 / SARS-COVID-2

Effectiveness of Response to COVID-19: Comparisons Between Regions


Daily number of infected people
The "response" metric (in days) gives the "lost time" in coping with COVID-19.
(Most recent data may be incomplete.)

 




World-Wide Best Response



World-Wide Worse Response



Reproduction Number R(t)
Equation: R(t) nc(t) = ni(t) using the delays: ni(t) = nc(t + 5 days) = nr(t + 12 days).
R(t) nr(t + 7 days) = nr(t + 12 days), where ni(t), nc(t) and nr(t) are
the infected, contagious and reported daily-number of people, respectively.

For Ottawa: infection R>1 after Stage-2 reopening on June 12th.




Regions' Response: from Best to Worse
Minimum 100 reported cases and 10 deaths.
The "response" metric (in days) gives the "lost time" in coping with COVID-19.
Rank History
[percentile]
Country/Region
(* = unstable metric)
Province/State
/City
Response
[days]
R0 End of Exp.
Growth
Feb. Mar. Apr. May June
July
Aug.


July
Aug.


9 23 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14
28
19
9


19
9



























95 94 96 96 92 92 100 France Guadeloupe 3.7 1.0 1.6 2020-07-25

100 45 73 96 98 97 97 100 100 98 99 99 China Henan 1.3 1.3 1.5 2020-01-29




95 97 97 97 99 99 97 98 98 Diamond Princess
1.6 1.6 1.4 2020-02-09






96 95 98 98 96 98 98 Australia Tasmania 1.8 1.8 1.3 2020-04-04





94 94 93 96 98 95 97 97 New Zealand
2.7 2.7 2.4 2020-03-21






94 92 94 95 95 96 97 Mauritius
2.9 2.9 1.5 2020-03-24






79 88 93 95 94 96 96 Tanzania
2.9 2.9 2.8 2020-04-09












96 * Vietnam

2.9 2.6 2020-07-22

75 36 68 94 86 91 91 92 93 93 95 95 China Heilongjiang 3.0 3.0 1.9 2020-01-30












95 * Netherlands Saint Maarten
3.3 1.9 2020-03-27
100 0 18 60 90 92 89 87 89 92 91 93 94 China Hubei 3.4 3.4 1.9 2020-01-30








83 88 87 97 94 Bahamas
1.8 3.5 3.1 2020-07-19




87 90 93 91 93 94 94 95 93 Andorra
3.0 3.7 1.6 2020-03-21
0 50 27 63 91 91 91 90 90 93 91 93 92 China All 3.4 3.7 1.7 2020-01-30






86 87 88 91 90 92 92 United Kingdom Isle of Man 3.7 3.7 1.7 2020-03-27










93 83 91 Montenegro
7.2 4.2 3.1 2020-07-01




100 93 90 85 89 92 87 91 91 Niger
4.1 4.4 2.6 2020-03-29




75 88 88 86 87 90 89 90 90 Thailand
4.4 4.6 2.7 2020-03-15












90 * Gambia

4.7 1.9 2020-07-28





84 85 83 86 89 88 89 89 United Kingdom Channel Islands 5.1 5.3 2.2 2020-03-21








84 75 89 90 89 Sao Tome and Principe
4.5 5.5 3.2 2020-04-24






100 70 70 84 86 88 88 Chad
5.5 5.7 2.6 2020-04-26










76 80 88 Benin
7.8 5.9 1.8 2020-06-07


9 39 83 90 87 85 82 85 85 88 87 Korea, South
5.7 5.9 4.0 2020-02-18





87 85 84 84 89 86 86 87 France Martinique 6.1 6.2 1.7 2020-03-15









86 81 85 86 Guinea-Bissau
6.8 6.2 2.4 2020-04-26











33 85 Zimbabwe
20.1 6.5 1.5 2020-07-12








97 90 90 87 85 Nicaragua
5.9 6.6 1.2 2020-06-01








62 81 80 78 84 Sri Lanka
8.1 6.6 1.7 2020-04-17




49 78 81 79 81 82 82 85 84 Australia New South Wales 7.0 7.0 3.2 2020-03-12




80 66 70 68 55 71 75 82 83 Canada-ON London 7.3 7.4 2.1 2020-03-25






76 75 76 77 76 84 83 Iceland
7.2 7.6 2.2 2020-03-10






59 65 69 68 74 80 82 Canada Nova Scotia 7.7 7.7 1.7 2020-03-23












82 * Lesotho

7.8 1.8 2020-07-01



65 68 81 80 76 79 81 77 81 81 Austria
7.7 8.1 2.7 2020-03-12




86 82 82 72 77 79 72 81 81 Burkina Faso
7.4 8.3 1.9 2020-03-19






75 67 75 76 78 83 80 Latvia
7.2 8.3 1.9 2020-03-16







99 71 71 73 77 80 Tajikistan
8.2 8.3 1.7 2020-05-07







89 91 97 80 87 79 Togo
6.0 8.6 1.9 2020-05-04




76 85 84 83 85 87 83 71 78 Luxembourg
9.6 8.9 2.8 2020-03-14



75 70 45 55 59 65 64 68 75 78 San Marino
8.9 8.9 1.6 2020-03-06











76 77 Jordan
8.7 9.0 1.4 2020-03-19





77 76 79 81 80 82 86 77 Cyprus
6.3 9.1 1.7 2020-03-21





89 83 82 78 84 75 77 76 Uruguay
8.1 9.2 1.5 2020-03-18







77 66 78 97 91 76 Guyana
3.8 9.3 1.8 2020-06-16




63 72 74 75 77 75 73 72 75 Slovenia
9.3 9.3 1.6 2020-03-11




72 67 78 73 75 72 79 79 75 Lithuania
7.8 9.7 2.3 2020-03-18



58 34 56 64 64 67 67 69 74 74 Germany
9.0 10.0 2.6 2020-03-12



48 30 57 65 69 70 67 71 73 74 Switzerland
9.0 10.0 2.8 2020-03-09



97 54 46 47 54 58 62 65 68 73 US-NY New York 10.1 10.1 2.9 2020-03-16






70 51 48 42 60 63 72 Somalia
11.3 10.5 2.4 2020-04-12





95 88 89 91 96 99 94 72 Kosovo
3.0 10.6 1.8 2020-06-09





96 72 62 61 64 67 69 71 Singapore
10.1 10.6 2.1 2020-04-09




31 61 63 66 67 65 70 76 71 Norway
8.5 10.7 2.5 2020-03-05









87 84 82 70 Jamaica
7.3 11.1 1.8 2020-04-11



7 15 48 43 55 46 54 63 65 70 Malaysia
11.0 11.3 3.1 2020-03-07




71 69 73 78 74 78 78 70 69 Tunisia
9.8 11.3 2.6 2020-03-17



80 79 74 68 70 72 68 71 72 69 Canada British Columbia 9.3 11.4 2.8 2020-03-12








95 56 43 48 68 Mauritania
14.2 11.6 2.7 2020-05-21








14 51 46 61 68 Equatorial Guinea
11.7 11.7 1.8 2020-04-08







80 68 70 55 63 67 Gabon
11.3 11.9 1.7 2020-05-02








37 53 64 67 67 Djibouti
10.6 12.0 2.6 2020-04-05







56 51 55 69 64 66 Georgia
11.2 12.0 1.5 2020-03-25




6 43 56 58 56 62 66 71 65 Estonia
9.7 12.1 2.4 2020-03-07






67 57 33 36 8 100 65 Kyrgyzstan
-0.2 12.2 1.6 2020-06-16



82 59 58 66 61 56 56 52 57 64 Portugal
12.6 12.2 2.6 2020-03-17



34 61 44 44 44 52 57 64 59 64 Canada-ON Ottawa 12.4 12.3 2.5 2020-03-21


54 2 5 26 41 45 51 51 59 60 63 Italy
11.8 12.4 2.4 2020-03-03


100 31 23 45 57 63 63 65 67 70 63 Spain
9.8 12.6 2.5 2020-03-12




62 52 37 37 39 49 52 54 62 Canada Quebec 12.9 12.7 2.5 2020-03-21








74 74 72 65 62 Canada Saskatchewan 11.2 12.7 1.7 2020-03-21




41 18 39 47 53 57 62 66 61 Ireland
10.9 12.8 2.0 2020-03-18





21 5 1 31 29 42 47 61 Afghanistan
14.6 13.0 1.4 2020-04-24





79 71 71 73 70 49 78 60 Australia Victoria 7.9 13.2 1.9 2020-06-27







60 57 43 50 60 60 Sierra Leone
12.3 13.4 1.5 2020-04-26



100 82 49 50 52 54 50 50 58 59 Turkey
12.4 13.4 2.5 2020-03-23




26 28 28 35 39 47 56 56 58 Finland
12.7 13.5 2.0 2020-03-11




40 73 73 72 72 73 68 44 58 Australia All 15.5 13.6 2.6 2020-03-15




73 75 79 77 80 82 61 50 57 Croatia
14.0 13.6 2.5 2020-03-16








43 38 46 51 57 South Sudan
13.8 13.6 2.2 2020-05-01


81 14 13 13 49 53 46 54 53 62 56 France
11.4 14.1 2.2 2020-03-12











56 56 West Bank and Gaza
12.7 14.1 3.2 2020-06-15


72 12 14 16 48 52 44 52 51 61 55 France All 11.8 14.4 2.2 2020-03-12





68 44 28 25 27 36 46 55 Belarus
14.9 14.7 2.4 2020-04-04



56 48 39 18 31 32 41 44 47 54 Canada All 14.6 14.7 2.4 2020-03-19











43 54 Mali
15.8 14.8 1.6 2020-04-05







100 42 35 31 38 53 Haiti
16.8 15.1 2.4 2020-05-06



43 3 32 32 40 45 42 47 53 52 Denmark
13.0 15.2 2.1 2020-03-06








68 37 45 40 52 Yemen
16.6 15.2 1.6 2020-05-07



41 7 35 36 42 47 43 48 55 51 Denmark All 12.8 15.3 2.1 2020-03-06






82 74 65 40 32 39 51 Liberia
16.7 15.3 1.3 2020-04-09



51 18 6 10 18 27 35 38 46 50 United Kingdom
15.2 15.8 2.3 2020-03-14



53 19 7 11 18 27 34 38 45 50 United Kingdom All 15.2 15.8 2.3 2020-03-14




37 29 22 35 43 48 53 48 49 Hungary
14.1 15.9 2.2 2020-03-17




47 12 21 23 23 32 33 41 49 Canada Ontario 16.6 16.2 2.3 2020-03-20



19 12 1 13 12 16 24 30 36 48 Canada-ON Toronto 17.9 16.3 1.9 2020-03-17











75 48 China Hong Kong 8.9 16.4 2.5 2020-03-13



17 16 8 17 20 22 30 35 37 47 Canada-ON All 17.3 16.5 2.0 2020-03-17




27 55 61 58 59 59 41 49 47 Czechia
14.0 16.9 2.6 2020-03-12



24 9 11 41 46 50 45 54 52 46 Netherlands
13.0 16.9 2.4 2020-03-11




50 14 15 34 48 39 40 40 45 Canada Alberta 16.7 17.5 1.9 2020-03-18












45 * Namibia

17.5 2.6 2020-06-21



29 8 10 40 45 49 45 54 52 44 Netherlands All 13.0 17.5 2.4 2020-03-11










9 26 44 Central African Republic
22.5 17.6 1.8 2020-04-26






64 32 20 22 34 28 43 Sudan
21.8 17.7 2.0 2020-04-21










83 67 43 Suriname
10.8 17.7 2.1 2020-06-11







62 53 44 43 42 42 Senegal
15.8 17.8 1.8 2020-04-19









73 84 73 42 Zambia
9.0 17.8 2.5 2020-05-03







13 32 25 27 38 41 France Mayotte 17.2 18.0 1.5 2020-03-25









60 39 58 41 Nepal
12.5 18.0 2.0 2020-05-22





19 52 56 62 60 56 55 40 Slovakia
12.8 18.0 1.7 2020-03-14



46 10 5 31 38 41 46 49 50 40 Belgium
14.0 18.1 2.4 2020-03-13










57 37 39 Malawi
17.4 18.4 2.3 2020-05-20




92 24 17 14 17 23 26 35 38 United Arab Emirates
18.7 18.9 2.3 2020-03-27





83 47 39 31 26 28 57 38 Maldives
12.6 19.1 2.8 2020-04-19



26 57 70 42 27 8 76 58 45 37 Iraq
15.4 19.2 1.8 2020-05-28










21 33 37 France French Guiana 20.2 19.3 2.0 2020-05-15





33 23 47 41 48 58 62 36 Cuba
11.7 19.6 2.2 2020-03-21



9 21 62 58 54 64 59 60 53 36 Greece
13.0 19.8 2.0 2020-03-09




24 54 60 66 63 53 36 36 35 Israel
18.4 19.8 2.4 2020-03-19


90 85 56 47 38 37 35 37 31 34 35 US
20.0 20.4 2.1 2020-03-22




36 100 61 36 34 18 20 28 34 Saudi Arabia
22.0 20.6 1.7 2020-04-10





80 50 43 25 28 27 30 34 Cameroon
21.4 20.7 2.2 2020-03-26






99 95 86 85 100 42 33 Paraguay
15.8 20.9 2.0 2020-04-27






34 2 79 58 45 6 32 Guatemala
29.1 21.3 1.6 2020-05-13



0 93 72 77 81 82 83 79 51 32 Japan
13.7 21.7 1.8 2020-03-25




42 9 25 41 50 40 30 27 31 Serbia
22.3 22.0 2.1 2020-03-21







64 18 63 57 20 31 Congo (Brazzaville)
24.2 22.1 1.5 2020-04-08






14 2 3 7 12 23 30 Qatar
23.1 22.3 2.3 2020-03-29




25 36 19 33 38 32 29 25 30 Bosnia and Herzegovina
22.8 22.4 1.7 2020-03-23





50 38 21 17 15 12 13 29 Azerbaijan
26.9 22.5 1.7 2020-03-29







29 24 28 34 32 29 Guinea
20.2 22.5 1.8 2020-04-03











31 28 Mozambique
20.7 22.6 1.7 2020-05-08



21 0 0 2 4 8 7 7 27 28 Sweden
22.3 22.6 1.5 2020-03-11










98 43 27 Angola
15.6 23.3 1.6 2020-06-05


63 4 1 25 32 19 15 20 21 26 27 Iran
22.6 23.5 2.2 2020-02-29







39 24 19 19 21 26 Bahrain
23.9 23.8 1.6 2020-04-05




28 22 26 22 21 20 28 29 25 Poland
21.4 23.8 2.0 2020-03-19











66 25 Syria
10.9 23.9 1.5 2020-05-18






55 43 34 14 14 14 24 Cote d'Ivoire
26.7 24.1 1.5 2020-03-30









79 65 41 24 Libya
16.5 24.1 1.5 2020-06-01



36 2 0 0 17 3 1 2 5 23 Egypt
30.3 24.5 1.5 2020-03-28




64 34 6 8 12 12 15 18 23 Russia
24.8 24.7 2.0 2020-04-03




20 17 16 25 28 23 25 25 22 Romania
22.6 24.8 2.1 2020-03-21




45 31 51 41 29 18 20 18 22 North Macedonia
24.9 25.1 1.6 2020-03-22



95 35 20 20 16 20 25 22 21 21 Algeria
24.0 25.5 1.9 2020-03-24









66 39 17 21 Madagascar
25.0 25.6 1.9 2020-05-12




97 54 45 24 22 16 24 23 20 Moldova
23.0 25.8 2.1 2020-03-25




74 76 27 15 60 33 16 13 20 Honduras
26.7 26.1 2.1 2020-04-25




84 27 9 12 13 13 10 12 19 Ukraine
27.0 26.2 1.6 2020-04-02








94 50 47 35 18 Ethiopia
19.0 26.4 1.9 2020-05-18




51 64 62 50 37 39 35 32 18 Lebanon
20.2 26.5 1.7 2020-03-15





99 69 48 26 15 13 12 17 Nigeria
27.1 26.6 1.9 2020-04-14




43 38 35 16 9 4 42 30 17 Argentina
21.2 27.0 1.4 2020-05-14




38 9 0 3 1 0 3 3 16 Pakistan
30.7 27.2 1.5 2020-03-27










19 11 16 Cabo Verde
27.4 27.4 1.5 2020-04-15






30 5 55 46 32 22 15 El Salvador
23.3 27.4 1.5 2020-04-28






92 98 87 69 37 31 15 Venezuela
20.5 27.7 2.0 2020-05-13







68 58 34 23 24 14 Costa Rica
22.8 27.9 1.5 2020-05-28






67 25 7 3 4 0 14 Oman
33.3 27.9 1.7 2020-04-08





71 52 29 13 10 9 11 13 Bangladesh
27.2 28.1 1.6 2020-04-16



90 17 2 1 8 19 14 16 15 12 Ecuador
26.5 28.1 2.7 2020-03-15





36 8 10 4 9 6 5 12 Kazakhstan
29.9 28.2 1.4 2020-04-07




52 60 58 50 40 29 24 20 11 Albania
24.7 28.3 1.5 2020-03-18










41 17 11 Eswatini
25.2 28.4 1.7 2020-04-20



87 29 27 3 0 0 0 0 16 10 Brazil
25.4 28.5 1.4 2020-04-20




65 53 35 31 44 21 17 8 10 Bulgaria
28.0 28.6 1.6 2020-03-17






54 49 36 26 18 15 9 Uzbekistan
25.4 28.6 1.9 2020-04-02






11 81 5 9 8 10 9 Kuwait
27.8 28.7 1.6 2020-04-03




85 59 23 10 2 5 5 6 8 Congo (Kinshasa)
28.9 28.8 1.5 2020-03-25




98 63 4 7 10 11 17 16 8 Peru
25.4 28.8 1.9 2020-04-05





65 29 14 6 3 4 2 7 Armenia
31.6 28.9 1.5 2020-03-22




69 42 24 22 18 17 15 7 7 Dominican Republic
28.3 29.0 1.4 2020-03-27




67 51 33 30 15 12 11 7 6 Panama
28.5 29.8 1.6 2020-03-24
50 25 0 70 4 3 8 11 11 10 10 8 5 World All 27.9 29.8 2.2 2020-03-12




89 63 29 96 60 31 0 1 5 South Africa
31.6 29.9 1.4 2020-05-05




60 23 20 26 36 31 23 22 4 Morocco
23.3 30.1 1.4 2020-03-28




46 40 14 6 0 61 63 68 4 Chile
10.4 30.4 1.4 2020-03-27




78 30 98 60 29 17 13 3 3 Bolivia
31.2 30.7 1.5 2020-04-26



92 32 41 26 27 30 21 26 19 3 Philippines
24.8 31.3 1.4 2020-03-28




81 18 5 6 6 4 2 10 2 India
27.4 32.9 1.3 2020-04-28




58 37 12 4 5 2 1 9 2 Colombia
27.9 33.2 1.3 2020-04-29






46 20 12 6 5 2 1 Ghana
31.6 33.4 1.8 2020-04-03





81 53 33 98 8 61 4 1 Kenya
30.4 34.0 1.5 2020-04-27



78 39 15 7 9 10 6 6 1 0 Indonesia
32.2 34.8 1.4 2020-03-23




53 4 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 Mexico
35.8 36.8 1.6 2020-04-02


Currently hospitalized in Ottawa.
Green curve shows a 7-day average delayed by 3 days.



Scale-free Network as a Model of Propagation.
Power law model P(k) = k-2.  Big spreaders contribute to most of the propagation of the disease.

20% of the spreaders (blue line) cause 80% of infections (red line).
(From "Super-spreaders" in The Guardian.)
With R0 = 3.0, the transmission probability is 76% per contact.

Reducing the number of people you meet each week will slow down propagation
(see: "Quarantine the social butterflies? It can be a better way to start off flattening the curve").
Assumed contagion period for COVID-19: about one week.

For each value of R: number of contacts in a week
as a function of the transmission probability per contact.


Incubation Period.
It takes nearly a week to know if you were infected by your last social encounter.
So if you must go out again: wear a mask, no chatting with anybody and a hand sign from a distance.



Number of Flights Worldwide.

Commercial passenger flights




Sources:


Louis Marmet
© 2020-8-10