Sunspot
number,
the
Sun
and Weather Forecast
The sun is alive!!
Environment Canada Weather Network Intellicast
Days ahead: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, degree C
Average: Forecast-Actual: 0.38 0.56 0.75 0.10 0.60 -1.09 -1.07 -0.73 -0.07 -0.03 -0.51 -0.54 -0.80 -1.77 -0.25 -0.11 -0.20 -0.60 -0.72 -0.73 -1.13 -1.01 -0.95 -1.46
Sigma: 1.92 1.90 2.31 2.48 3.34 3.01 3.62 2.29 1.90 2.49 2.50 2.92 3.45 4.43 2.44 2.42 2.51 2.79 3.28 3.53 3.88 4.45 4.79 4.68
Days of data: (104) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (100) (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) ( 95) ( 94) ( 93) ( 92) ( 91) ( 91) ( 91) ( 90) ( 89) ( 87)
SUN FORECASTS, 1 or 0 == sunny or not.
Average: Forecast-Actual: 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.05 0.20 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.10 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.11 0.06 0.10 0.01 -0.04 0.02 0.07 -0.26 -0.20 -0.16
Correlation: 0.64 0.49 0.55 0.49 0.55 0.38 0.18 0.55 0.53 0.42 0.38 0.41 0.24 0.14 0.45 0.47 0.46 0.35 0.28 0.20 0.09 -0.03 -0.12 0.02
Days of data: (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) ( 95) ( 94) ( 93) ( 92) ( 91) ( 91) ( 91) ( 90) ( 89) ( 86)
CLOUD FORECASTS, 1 or 0 == clouds or not.
Average: Forecast-Actual: -0.16 -0.19 -0.24 -0.27 -0.22 -0.24 -0.20 -0.10 -0.19 -0.14 -0.10 -0.13 -0.04 -0.12 -0.12 -0.18 -0.16 -0.13 -0.12 -0.12 -0.05 0.09 0.02 0.08
Correlation: 0.56 0.46 0.51 0.53 0.45 0.39 0.14 0.70 0.35 0.44 0.40 0.46 0.38 0.34 0.51 0.57 0.42 0.30 0.27 0.21 0.16 0.08 -0.03 0.09
Days of data: (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) ( 95) ( 94) ( 93) ( 92) ( 91) ( 91) ( 91) ( 90) ( 89) ( 86)
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, 1 or 0 == precipitation (at least for 4 hours between 7:00 and 21:59) or not
Average: Forecast-Actual: 0.13 0.19 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.24 -0.03 0.05 -0.01 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.13 0.13 0.43 0.39 0.35
Correlation: 0.56 0.60 0.41 0.48 0.38 0.28 0.35 0.69 0.55 0.32 0.40 0.31 0.20 0.13 0.48 0.53 0.40 0.45 0.20 0.23 0.15 0.07 -0.04 0.21
Days of data: (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) (105) (104) (103) (102) (101) (101) (101) ( 94) ( 93) ( 92) ( 91) ( 90) ( 90) ( 90) ( 89) ( 88) ( 85)
RAIN PERCENT FORECASTS, 1 or 0 == precipitation (at least for 4 hours between 7:00 and 21:59) or not
Average: 0% <20% forecast: 4% 0% 4% 0% 5% 10% 9% 0% 7% 8% 0% 12% 18% 0% 0% 15% 0% 8% 0% 8% 0% 25% 22% 17%
Average: 20% <40% forecast: 40% 57% 25% 17% 33% 25% 40% 19% 12% 22% 25% 11% 8% 33% 67% --- 25% 60% 100% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Average: 40% <60% forecast: 86% 44% 22% 33% 40% 0% 50% 50% 78% 38% 11% 9% 14% 46% 62% 40% 25% 0% 25% 0% --- 0% --- 0%
Average: 60% <80% forecast: 50% 86% 45% 25% 33% 36% 30% 75% 60% 50% 29% 50% 44% 29% 100% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Average: 80%-100% forecast: 50% 100% 75% 75% 80% --- --- 89% 69% 44% 55% 73% 33% 8% 67% 100% 100% --- 0% --- --- --- --- ---
Days of data for 0% <20%: ( 27) ( 21) ( 26) ( 24) ( 22) ( 20) ( 22) ( 17) ( 14) ( 13) ( 12) ( 8) ( 11) ( 11) ( 20) ( 20) ( 14) ( 12) ( 11) ( 13) ( 12) ( 8) ( 9) ( 6)
Days of data for 20% <40%: ( 5) ( 7) ( 4) ( 6) ( 3) ( 8) ( 5) ( 26) ( 16) ( 23) ( 16) ( 18) ( 12) ( 9) ( 3) ( 0) ( 4) ( 5) ( 3) ( 3) ( 3) ( 3) ( 1) ( 3)
Days of data for 40% <60%: ( 7) ( 9) ( 9) ( 6) ( 5) ( 2) ( 4) ( 10) ( 9) ( 8) ( 9) ( 11) ( 7) ( 13) ( 8) ( 5) ( 4) ( 1) ( 4) ( 3) ( 0) ( 1) ( 0) ( 1)
Days of data for 60% <80%: ( 4) ( 7) ( 11) ( 4) ( 6) ( 14) ( 10) ( 4) ( 5) ( 6) ( 7) ( 10) ( 16) ( 7) ( 2) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0)
Days of data for 80%-100%: ( 2) ( 3) ( 4) ( 8) ( 5) ( 0) ( 0) ( 9) ( 13) ( 9) ( 11) ( 11) ( 6) ( 12) ( 6) ( 1) ( 2) ( 0) ( 1) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0)
RAIN mm FORECASTS, in mm
Average: Forecast-Actual: 9.00 -0.73 --- --- --- --- --- -2.13 0.66 0.24 0.44 0.62 0.88 -0.27 -12.00 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Sigma: --- 5.30 --- --- --- --- --- 7.08 3.94 4.54 7.54 7.33 4.73 8.20 16.40 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Days of data: ( 1) ( 3) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 39) ( 42) ( 45) ( 42) ( 40) ( 38) ( 42) ( 2) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0)
SNOW PERCENT FORECASTS, 1 or 0 == precipitation (at least for 4 hours between 7:00 and 21:59) or not
Average: 0% <20% forecast: 7% 5% 17% 11% 16% 29% 22% 0% 0% 6% 8% 12% 22% 20% 7% 5% 5% 10% 5% 21% 14% 11% 47% 0%
Average: 20% <40% forecast: 56% 30% 67% 50% 50% 50% 25% 29% 24% 37% 6% 18% 33% 25% 42% 62% 80% 33% 42% 64% 44% 33% 38% 38%
Average: 40% <60% forecast: 33% 71% 44% 100% 67% 20% 40% 60% 55% 30% 44% 40% 45% 33% 60% 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% --- 50% 0% 33%
Average: 60% <80% forecast: 43% 62% 100% 50% 75% 50% 33% 100% 71% 40% 50% 33% 43% 50% 33% 100% 100% --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Average: 80%-100% forecast: 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% --- --- 80% 83% 80% 40% 60% 50% 71% 100% 100% --- 0% 100% --- 100% 0% 0% 0%
Days of data for 0% <20%: ( 14) ( 20) ( 23) ( 27) ( 25) ( 24) ( 18) ( 14) ( 10) ( 17) ( 13) ( 16) ( 9) ( 15) ( 14) ( 19) ( 22) ( 20) ( 21) ( 14) ( 14) ( 9) ( 17) ( 7)
Days of data for 20% <40%: ( 9) ( 10) ( 3) ( 2) ( 2) ( 10) ( 8) ( 14) ( 17) ( 19) ( 18) ( 17) ( 24) ( 16) ( 12) ( 8) ( 5) ( 6) ( 12) ( 14) ( 9) ( 18) ( 13) ( 16)
Days of data for 40% <60%: ( 6) ( 7) ( 9) ( 1) ( 3) ( 5) ( 10) ( 10) ( 11) ( 10) ( 9) ( 10) ( 11) ( 15) ( 10) ( 2) ( 3) ( 2) ( 2) ( 1) ( 0) ( 2) ( 3) ( 3)
Days of data for 60% <80%: ( 7) ( 8) ( 2) ( 4) ( 4) ( 14) ( 18) ( 4) ( 7) ( 5) ( 10) ( 6) ( 7) ( 4) ( 6) ( 1) ( 1) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0)
Days of data for 80%-100%: ( 3) ( 2) ( 1) ( 1) ( 2) ( 0) ( 0) ( 5) ( 6) ( 5) ( 5) ( 5) ( 4) ( 7) ( 4) ( 1) ( 0) ( 1) ( 1) ( 0) ( 1) ( 1) ( 2) ( 2)
SNOW cm FORECASTS, in cm
Average: Forecast-Actual: -1.75 -3.96 -12.40 --- --- --- --- -2.07 -0.04 0.46 0.86 1.62 0.35 -0.39 0.28 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Sigma: 3.99 5.62 --- --- --- --- --- 4.07 2.26 2.86 2.50 3.40 3.94 5.45 3.31 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Days of data: ( 11) ( 5) ( 1) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 18) ( 28) ( 30) ( 39) ( 25) ( 29) ( 29) ( 8) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0) ( 0)